Estimating bidirectional transition and post‐reversion of mild cognitive impairment

Background The natural trajectory of reversion from MCI to normal cognition (NC) and the cognitive pattern post-reversion have been poorly explored in existing literature. main goals this study were as follows: (1) quantitatively predict bidirectional transitions (reversion NC progression dementia); (2) explore patterns future changes post-reversion; (3) estimate effects selected covariates on transition probabilities course loss. Method National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center database was funded by a Institute Aging/National Institutes Health grant (U24 AG072122). Data for comprised 24,220 observations 6,651 participants with an diagnosis at entry during least two visits between June 2005 February 2021. Defining transient states dementia absorbing state, we fate using continuous-time, multi-state Markov model, which provides information probability multiple states, hazard ratio, mean sojourn time, total length stay over 15 years. Result Transition intensity re-progression 0.3168, 2.48 times greater than or NC. For participants, chance progressing increased 2% per year. who re-progressed had approximately 40% reversing again 15-year period. stayed state 3.2667 years (range 2.9349–3.6360) 1.7605 1.5134–2.0480) before dementia. Age, function, daily activity ability, depressive symptoms significant predictors Conclusion There distinct dynamics amnesic (aMCI) nonamnesic (naMCI). remained risk long term. Findings can serve valuable references relevant research healthcare professionals help understand history loss create proactive plans targeted interventions.